Second Language Feedback Reduces the Hot Hand Fallacy, But Why?

Second Language Feedback Reduces the Hot Hand Fallacy, But Why?

Decision-Making under the Hot-Hand Fallacy

The hot-hand fallacy has long been considered a widespread cognitive illusion with important consequences for decision-makers. A sports player may misinterpret a lucky streak of successful shots, and pursue a more aggressive strategy that hurts one’s performance. A physician prone to the hot-hand fallacy may also misinterpret random streaks of poor patient outcomes, and respond by treating the ...

Second language feedback abolishes the "hot hand" effect during even-probability gambling.

Research into language-emotion interactions has revealed intriguing cognitive inhibition effects by emotionally negative words in bilinguals. Here, we turn to the domain of human risk taking and show that the experience of positive recency in games of chance-the "hot hand" effect-is diminished when game outcomes are provided in a second language rather than the native language. We engaged late ...

Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns

The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern composition, two different statistics (mean time and waiting time) can arise from the same independent Bernou...

The Hot Hand in Basketball: Fallacy or Adaptive Thinking?

In basketball, players believe that they should "feed the hot hand," by giving the ball to a player more often if that player has hit a number of shots in a row. However, Gilovich, Vallone & Tversky (1985) analyzed basketball players' successive shots and showed that they are independent events. Thus the hot hand seems to be a fallacy. Taking the correctness of their result as a starting point,...